One Day To Go!

GAME RECAP: No Game Yesterday!

The Phillies take the day to reflect on a successful spring and prepare for a long regular season. Of course, it is not too early to make plans for the postseason (i.e. where to watch the games).

NEXT GAME:

Veteran right-hander Jeremy Hellickson will make the first Opening Day start of his career Monday when the Phillies play the Reds at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. "It's definitely going to be different," Hellickson said. "The emotions are going to be high. The atmosphere is going to be crazy. The adrenaline is going to be flowing, and I'm going to be really excited. I'm grateful for the opportunity, and I'm looking forward to it." Outfielder Cedric Hunter, 28, is expected to make his first big league start after coming to camp as a non-roster player.

PHILS PHACTS:

First And Last - The Phillies called Veterans Stadium home for over thirty years beginning on this day in 1971 when it was officially dedicated. And when Jim Bunning threw out the final opening day first ball on this day in 2003, Chase Utley was on the roster for the first time. While there were coountless debuts after on this day such as Kenny Lofton in 2005 and Jayson Werth in 2007, the latter years of the Vet were marked by the promise of young talent such as Eric Valent and the actualization of talent like that of Scott Rolen both of whom were born on this day. Another home grown talent, Ryan Howard, never played at the Vet but did spend some time in Scranton during his career when he made a guest appearance on The Office in an episode that aired on this day in 2013. 

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finished the spring exceeding most expectations compiling a record of 15-11-3 (18-11-3 if you include the exhibition games against Reading and the University of Tampa). I expect the Phillies to finish in the bottom half of the division but not last in the NL East by finishing the season with a 77-85 record. Let the rebuild begin!

Injuries And Opportunities

PHILS PHACTS:

Another Injury – The Phillies expect right-hander Jerad Eickhoff to be in their five-man rotation come Opening Day. But Eickhoff experienced a setback recently with a non-displaced fracture in his right thumb. The Phillies said it should not affect his ability to start the season, although manager Pete Mackanin said Eickhoff has not yet thrown a bullpen session. "He did it bunting before camp started," Mackanin said. "A ball just got away from him. But he shouldn't be far behind. It set him back a little bit, but not much." Eickhoff, 25, went 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA in eight starts last season with the Phillies, who acquired him in July in the Cole Hamels trade with the Rangers. If healthy, he is expected to open the season in the rotation with Aaron Nola, Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. The No. 5 job is wide open with Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer and Adam Morgan the top candidates.

A Quartet Of Closers – The moment the Phillies traded Ken Giles to the Astros, they needed a closer. They already needed a setup man, and maybe another reliable reliever or two. They signed David Hernandez to a one-year, $3.9 million contract shortly before the Giles trade in December. But rather than sign another free-agent closer or setup man or acquire one in a trade, the rebuilding Phillies made more minor moves, which included signing four reclamation projects to Minor League contracts with invitations to Spring Training: right-handers Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Frieri and Edward Mujica and left-hander James Russell. The Phillies hope one of them can be their closer or setup man in 2016. If they are lucky, two or more of them will find their mojo and stabilize a bullpen that has few certainties other than maybe Hernandez and Jeanmar Gomez. "I can't say they're all going to be as impressive," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said Friday afternoon at Bright House Field. "I'd like to believe that more than a couple guys are going to make our job difficult. I'd like to believe that all of them are going to compete well enough that we're going to have a tough decision to make. That's what we're hoping for." Bailey, Frieri, Mujica and Russell have made a combined 1,395 appearances with 226 saves. But each of them has plenty to prove. That is why they are here. "I know they're rebuilding," Russell said. "But it's always a good opportunity for somebody that's not coming off the greatest year and trying to get back on track." Russell, 30, had a 5.29 ERA in 49 appearances last season with the Cubs. He posted a 1.71 ERA in 33 appearances from May 5 through July 7, but had an 11.08 ERA in 16 appearances the rest of the way before the Cubs designated him for assignment Sept. 1. "I don't know what it was last year," Russell said. "I felt like I was cruising for a little bit then had a couple bad outings going into September that really hurt me. If I could take away three outings, I have a great year again." In fact, remove Russell's two worst performances in August and he had a respectable 3.16 ERA in 47 of 49 appearances. Bailey, 31, has pitched in just 59 games the past four seasons because of a shoulder injury. He pitched with the Yankees last season. He had a 1.80 ERA in 28 Minor League appearances before he posted a 5.19 ERA in 10 appearances with New York. Before injuries hit, Bailey, who is from Haddonfield, N.J., had a 2.07 ERA with 75 saves from 2009-11. He made the American League All-Star team twice. "I'm coming off injuries and working my way back, so it's the opportunity I was looking for the most," Bailey said. "The Phillies presented me with a great one and I hope to take full advantage of it." Frieri, 30, had a 2.76 ERA in 228 appearances from 2009-13, but he had a 7.34 ERA in 48 appearances with the Angels and Pirates in 2014. The Rays have had tremendous success fixing pitchers in the past, so they took a shot on him in 2015. Tampa Bay designated Frieri for assignment in June after he posted a 4.63 ERA in 22 appearances. At the time they said they needed more relievers who could pitch multiple innings, and they thought Frieri was just a one-inning pitcher. Mujica, 31, is a former All-Star who has made 494 appearances with 50 saves in his career. He had a 4.75 ERA in 49 appearances last season with Oakland and Boston. He has battled a neck injury the past couple of seasons, which he said has been resolved. He also fractured his right thumb in May. He said he might have returned too early from that injury. "It's a different experience for me," Mujica said about being in camp as a non-roster invitee. "This is my first time in this position. You don't have a spot on the roster. It's a little crazy." But while each pitcher can point to a reason for his recent struggles, there is no question each will need to pitch well to win a job. They are guaranteed nothing, which is why the Phillies are taking a shot. They are low-risk, high-reward arms on a roster filled with inexperience. "We don't know yet," Mackanin said about who will be the Phillies' closer. "That's one of the things that's going to be a lot of fun looking at. By the end of Spring Training, we'll come up with somebody. We'll look at all of them."

Will They Win Again? – Everybody wants to know the Phillies' time frame to win again. Could it be 2017, '18 or '19? Phillies president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak have wisely not offered any hints because nobody truly knows when they will win again. But they do believe '16 should give them a pretty good idea about it. "What we're going to find out this year more than anything is what kind of track we're on," MacPhail said Friday evening at Grapefruit League Media Day. "Are we on a fast track? Are we on a medium track? Are we on a slow track? That's going to be determined by the 25 we break with. It's also going to be determined by how some of those next-level guys progress and how many of them demonstrated they're ready to come to the big leagues." Those next-level guys include six of the top 100 prospects in baseball, according to MLBPipeline.com. They will be in camp this spring: shortstop J.P. Crawford, outfielder Nick Williams, right-hander Jake Thompson, right-hander Mark Appel, catcher Jorge Alfaro and outfielder Roman Quinn. "Matt has said this and he's absolutely right," MacPhail said. "You don't want to have to send somebody back. So it's important for the organization, when they promote them, they've got to feel like they're going to stick."

Today In Phils History - What may be surprising to some is that Shane Victorino made an appearance on a CBS drama on this day 4 years ago. What is not surprising is that the show was Hawaii 5-0. 

THE BEGINNING:

With the Phillies having finished the 2015 season with a spectacularly awful record of 63-99 it will be interesting to see what kind of team new President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak put on the field. At the same time I am definitely looking forward to the games against Boston with former GM Ruben Amaro on the field. Given the departures, lingering contracts, a history of injuries, bipolar performances, and unproven talent, it should, at the very least, be an interesting season for the Phillies. Who knows, maybe they can avoid 100 losses... hopefully by more than one game!

Spring Training Has Officially Begun!

PHILS PHACTS:

Who Are You Again? – Pete Mackanin patrolled the Carpenter Complex on Thursday morning looking pretty much like everybody else. Mackanin watched the players, then he checked the back of their jerseys to read their names. "I'm trying to put a name to the face," Mackanin said. Only 18 out of the 65 players in Phillies camp opened Spring Training last year with the team. Many of the new faces this year include the organization's top prospects. Of the seven players in MLBPipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, six are at Bright House Field. Could they join the Phillies before the end of the season, or will the organization take things more slowly knowing they have a long rebuild ahead of them? "We had a good first day," Mackanin said following the first workout for pitchers and catchers. "The timing worked great, we had guys moving. A lot of guys in camp. Boy oh boy. I looked at that clubhouse, and it was full of people. A lot of energy. A lot of competition. I think that's going to breed a lot of excitement." There is more energy in the clubhouse than in recent seasons for a few reasons. First, there are more young players, and young players want to prove themselves. Second, even the more established players know no job is completely safe. Third, Mackanin simply is more gregarious than former manager Ryne Sandberg. "I took a course on motivation in college one semester," Mackanin quipped. But Mackanin can easily see why this camp feels different, even if more energy might not translate into many more wins than last season, when the Phillies lost 99 games. "Back when I played, players came into Spring Training to get in shape," Mackanin said. "Everybody was overweight and most -- 60 percent of the guys -- smoked. You were here to get in shape. Over the course of time, it's changed quite a bit. We've got a lot of finely tuned athletes. Players are not stupid. They know that jobs are available. They know that there are things they can do to make an impression. We talked to them at the end of last year to let them know that, as I've always said, you're auditioning all the time. You don't take anything for granted. You have to earn the job. I don't care what you did last year. It's basically what have you done for me lately. The players sense that. They know there are jobs available, especially in the pitching department. "So I think everybody is real eager to show what they can do. We have a lot of new faces, a lot of guys who have been other places and have had success. I think they feel like they have an opportunity to show that they're not fading away, that they're ready to make their mark and get back on track." Mackanin also touched on a couple other topics on Thursday: On experience being a factor when it comes to the Opening Day starter: "We're going to talk about it, and we'll decide on the guy who we feel is the best guy suited for the job. Experience is very important, but at the same time, for example, I liked the mound presence of [Jerad] Eickhoff and [Aaron] Nola. Neither one of them showed any fear. That's a big part of it. That being said, experience is a definite factor." On innings limits for the team's young pitchers: "We'll come up with a plan. We're certainly going to take care of some of these guys. We're not going to overdo it. Just wait and see. I told Nola, for example, the last outing he pitched, I told him, 'I'm taking you out of the game here,' and he said, 'Why?' I said, 'We're taking care of you, but next year we're not going to take care of you.' If we feel he's capable of throwing 200 innings, he's going to throw 200 innings. But once again, we're going to have to discuss that in-house." On a potential lack of leadership amongst the position players: "We'll find out during the course of the spring. We've discussed that. You always like to have a leader in the clubhouse. I posed this question to [bench coach] Larry Bowa and Mike Schmidt. I said, 'When you guys played and you were successful, did you need somebody to be your leader? Did you need somebody to tell you how to play and what to do?' To a man, they all said no, because that was their makeup. There's going to be enough players with good makeup that I think out of that bunch one or two guys might rise to the occasion and become the leaders. It's something you can't teach. You just have to hope it evolves."

Ruiz Has A Lot To Offer – Carlos Ruiz sees few familiar faces in the Phillies' clubhouse these days. Jimmy Rollins? He has been gone since December 2014. Cole Hamels and Chase Utley? They were traded last July and August, respectively. Ruiz, 37, is one of only two remaining members of the Phillies' 2008 World Series championship team. In fact, he is only one of two remaining members from the Phillies' last postseason team in '11. Ryan Howard is the other, but Ruiz stood alone on Thursday morning at Bright House Field as Phillies pitchers and catchers held their first official workout. The team conducts its first full-squad workout on Tuesday. "I miss those guys," Ruiz said. "They're part of my family." But the family has broken up as the Phillies are rebuilding. Ruiz is the oldest player in Phillies camp, which is likely his last. He is in the final year of a three-year, $26 million contract, following the worst season of his career. The Phillies have a $4.5 million option for Ruiz for 2017, but unless he finds the fountain of youth, they are expected to take a $500,000 buyout instead. Ruiz hit .211 with two home runs, 22 RBIs and a .575 OPS in 320 plate appearances in 2015. Catcher Cameron Rupp started 56 of the team's final 92 games (60.9 percent) and 33 of the final 49 (67.3 percent). That trend is expected to continue this year. "I'm going to try to enjoy every day," Ruiz said. "This is part of my life, and I don't know how long I'm going to be here. I know I want to enjoy my teammates, this organization. … But I don't want to think about that because I'm real excited about this year." Some Phillies fans have wondered what value a catcher like Ruiz might have in 2016. The reality is he has plenty, even if he cannot perform like he has in the past. Ruiz has been one of the most-respected and well-liked players in the clubhouse for years. The Phillies are looking for leadership. Ruiz can provide some. Ruiz obviously has a wealth of knowledge he can impart upon Rupp and catching prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp. Ruiz has caught some of the most dominant pitchers of his era, including Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Jonathan Papelbon and Brad Lidge. Ruiz has started 46 postseason games, too. He caught some of the most masterful pitching performances in Phillies postseason history, including Hamels' run as a World Series and National League Championship Series Most Valuable Player in 2008, as well as Halladay's no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 NL Division Series. Think Ruiz can't teach a few things to the Phillies' young pitchers and catchers? "I like to be around young guys because they make me feel young, too," Ruiz said. Ruiz got to camp early this month and has already been working with Alfaro, who is one of MLB.com's top 100 prospects. "He has good hands and he can swing the bat," Ruiz said. "He's a guy you have to keep your eyes on. He's young, but he can play." But Ruiz wants to offer more than advice and knowledge. He still believes he can play. He battled some weakness in his left shoulder last season, following surgery in 2014. He said the shoulder feels fine. "Whatever happened last year is over," Ruiz said. "I come into this year with a different mentality, ready to go." So if Ruiz proves he still has something left in the tank, how much longer would he like to play? "Right now I go day to day," Ruiz said. "I don't know how long. It depends on how my body feels, but right now I feel good. I feel strong. I believe I can still play every day. It's not in my hands. The only thing I can control is what I do on the field. I'm ready. We'll see what happens."

Today In Phils History - In the 1980's the Phillies had a stud on their roster but didn't know it. Dave Stewart, born on this day in 1957, didn't find success until after his time in Philadelphia. The following decade, in 1992, the Phillies shipped off Charlie Hayes to make room at 3rd base. 

THE BEGINNING:

With the Phillies having finished the 2015 season with a spectacularly awful record of 63-99 it will be interesting to see what kind of team new President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak put on the field. At the same time I am definitely looking forward to the games against Boston with former GM Ruben Amaro on the field. Given the departures, lingering contracts, a history of injuries, bipolar performances, and unproven talent, it should, at the very least, be an interesting season for the Phillies. Who knows, maybe they can avoid 100 losses... hopefully by more than one game!

It Should Be An Interesting Roster…

PHILS PHACTS:

Zolecki's Projections – Phillies pitchers and catchers hold their first workout today in Clearwater, Fla. Opening Day follows 46 days later. This figures to be the most interesting Spring Training for the Phillies since 2011, when they had arguably one of the greatest rotations in baseball history with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. This time, things will be interesting for different reasons. The Phillies are rebuilding, which means this camp will feature players with plenty to prove. In the fifth part of a seven-part series previewing Phillies' Spring Training, MLB.com takes a look at the projected lineup, rotation and back end of the bullpen. It is worth noting that while Cameron Rupp is expected to play more regularly than Carlos Ruiz behind the plate, it would not be a surprise to see the Phillies give the starting spot to Ruiz on Opening Day. It also is worth mentioning that there are multiple candidates for closer and setup men. Projecting a favorite at this point would be a bad bet. 2015 record: 63-99, fifth in the National League East. Projected batting order: 1. 2B Cesar Hernandez: .272 BA, .339 OBP, .348 SLG, 1 HR, 35 RBI in 2015; 2. CF Odubel Herrera: .297 BA, .344 OBP, .418 SLG, 8 HR, 41 RBI in 2015; 3. 3B Maikel Franco: .280 BA, .343 OBP, .497 SLG, 14 HR, 50 RBI in 2015; 4. 1B Ryan Howard: .229 BA, .277 OBP, .443 SLG, 23 HR, 77 RBI in 2015; 5. LF Aaron Altherr: .241 BA, .338 OBP, .489 SLG, 5 HR, 22 RBI in 2015; 6. C Cameron Rupp: .233 BA, .301 OBP, .374 SLG, 9 HR, 28 RBI in 2015; 7. SS Freddy Galvis: .263 BA, .302 OBP, .343 SLG, 7 HR, 50 RBI in 2015; 8. RF Peter Bourjos: .200 BA, .290 OBP, .333 SLG, 4 HR, 13 RBI in 2015. Projected rotation: 1. Aaron Nola , 6-2, 3.59 ERA in 2015; 2. Jeremy Hellickson , 9-12, 4.62 ERA in 2015; 3. Jerad Eickhoff , 3-3, 2.65 ERA in 2015; 4. Charlie Morton , 9-9, 4.81 ERA in 2015; 5. Vincent Velasquez , 1-1, 4.37 ERA in 2015. Projected bullpen: Closer: Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri or Andrew Bailey; RH setup man: David Hernandez , 4.28 ERA in 2015; LH setup man: Elvis Araujo , 3.38 ERA in 2015.

Today In Phils History - It was an interesting opening to spring training on this day in 1995 as with the strike still unresolved, the roster was full of minor-leaguers and replacement players, including former major-leaguers Marty Bystrom, Todd Cruz, Jeff Stone, and Greg Legg. A year later, the Phillies brought back Terry Mulholland. Also, happy birthday to Roger Craig (1930), Dave Roberts (1951), and Cody Ransom (1976). Still can't believe the latter of the 3 is turning 40. 

THE BEGINNING:

With the Phillies having finished the 2015 season with a spectacularly awful record of 63-99 it will be interesting to see what kind of team new President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak put on the field. At the same time I am definitely looking forward to the games against Boston with former GM Ruben Amaro on the field. Given the departures, lingering contracts, a history of injuries, bipolar performances, and unproven talent, it should, at the very least, be an interesting season for the Phillies. Who knows, maybe they can avoid 100 losses... hopefully by more than one game!

A Retraction And An Endorsement

PHILS PHACTS:

Retraction Request – The lawyer for Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman is demanding an immediate and complete retraction to the Al Jazeera report that linked both to performance enhancing drugs. Multiple reports said William Burck, who represents both Howard and Zimmerman, sent a letter to Al Jazeera requesting the retraction. Al Jazeera issued a correction to its written report online, saying, "An earlier version of this article reported on an allegation about possible links between Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard and human growth hormone. The substance alleged was Delta 2, not HGH." That does not go far enough, according to Howard's and Zimmerman's representation. "Al Jazeera tried sneaking out a correction which acknowledges major errors in their story about our clients Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard," Burck said in a statement. "The original defamatory 'report' connected our clients to the use of HGH, but Al Jazeera has now admitted this defamatory accusation was wholly false and unsubstantiated. Al Jazeera's acknowledgment confirms their unforgivable sloppiness and the recklessness of its publication of this false story. Al Jazeera must retract the remaining false allegations against our clients immediately." Earlier this week, Burck called the claims in the report "outright lies" and vowed to fight them in court. "We will go to court to hold Al Jazeera and other responsible parties accountable for smearing our clients' good names," Burck said. Major League Baseball said it will conduct a thorough investigation of the report, whose source has already recanted his comments.

A Strong Candidate For Enshrinement – Even though seven players have been inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame over the past two years, many strong candidates remain on the ballot. With Baseball Writers' Association of America voters able to pick a maximum of 10 players apiece, and 75 percent of the vote required for enshrinement, several worthy candidates must travel a difficult road. Results of this year's BBWAA vote will be revealed on MLB Network on Jan. 6, with a news conference involving any electees to be held the following day. It's unlikely Curt Schilling, in his fourth year on the ballot, will be part of that group. The right-hander, who received 39.2 percent of the vote last time around, has a long ways to go. Schilling no doubt has suffered from his relatively low total of wins (216) and lack of a Cy Young Award, perhaps getting overshadowed by his brilliant contemporaries -- and in some cases teammates -- such as Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. But when it comes to the most relevant numbers, there is a strong case for the six-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young runner-up as a clear Hall of Famer. Here is a look at that argument: • Schilling's career value stacks up quite favorably. His 80.7 pitching wins above replacement (WAR) ranks 26th all time, according to Baseball-Reference.com, including 14th in the expansion era (since 1961). He comes in just behind Bob Gibson and ahead of numerous Hall of Famers, including Don Sutton, Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale. • Baseball-Reference's wins above average (WAA) compares a player's performance to the league average instead of to a theoretical replacement player, as in WAR. By that standard, Schilling's 54.1 ranks 10th among pitchers since 1901, ahead of such names as Gibson, Steve Carlton and Warren Spahn. • In 1968, baseball witnessed the Year of the Pitcher and responded by lowering the mound. Over the 47 seasons since then, here is where Schilling's career numbers fall in several important categories (a minimum of 2,500 innings was used for rate stats): Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 1st (4.38); Strikeouts per 9 innings: 4th (8.6); WHIP: 4th (1.137); Walks per 9 innings: 6th (1.96); WAA: 6th (54.1); ERA+: 7th (127); Strikeouts: 9th (3,116); WAR: 10th (80.7); Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 11th (3.23). • Schilling started slowly, but over his final 12 years (1996-2007), during an era of extreme offense, he went 173-104 (a .625 winning percentage) with a 3.43 ERA (134 ERA+), averaging more than 200 innings and 200 strikeouts per season. From 2001-04, at the advanced ages of 34-37, he led all pitchers in WAR, with an average of 7.8. Schilling also was first in strikeout-to-walk ratio, second in strikeouts, third in innings and FIP and fourth in ERA+. For good measure, he won seven postseason games and two World Series rings. • When it comes to racking up strikeouts and limiting walks -- a crucial part of a pitcher's job -- few have been better than Schilling. The righty is one of four pitchers to record at least three 300-strikeout seasons, along with Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax. Excluding the 1800s, no pitcher with even 1,000 career innings can match Schilling's 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only one other pitcher with 2,000-plus innings, Martinez, is above 3.78. At his best, from 2001-06, Schilling posted a 6.75 ratio, putting him way ahead of his closest challenger, Johnson (4.70). Schilling was responsible for five of the top 11 single-season marks during that span, and his 9.58 in 2002 was the second-best in history up until 2010. It still ranks fourth. • For perspective on Schilling, examine Tom Glavine, who sailed into the Hall with 91.9 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot, in 2014. The two pitchers operated during almost the exact same period. Glavine does hold huge advantages in starts, innings pitched and victories (cracking the esteemed 300 mark), and longevity certainly is important. Still, here is how the two compare in some other areas. Pitching WAR: Schilling 80.7 | Glavine 74.0; Total WAR: Glavine 81.5 | Schilling 79.9; WAA: Schilling 54.1 | Glavine 39.1; ERA+: Schilling 127 | Glavine 118; FIP: Schilling 3.23 | Glavine 3.95; K/BB: Schilling 4.4 | Glavine 1.7. • Still on the fence about Schilling? Consider that the three-time World Series champion is one of the best postseason performers in baseball history. In 19 career postseason starts, he went 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, including a 2.06 ERA over seven Fall Classic outings. Schilling was the MVP of the 1993 National League Championship Series for the Phillies, threw a shutout in that year's World Series against Toronto, and he set a single-postseason record for strikeouts (56) for the 2001 D-backs. That year, he produced a 1.12 ERA, and Arizona won five of his six outings, which included three complete games and a shutout.

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.

What Will 2016 Hold For The Phillies?

PHILS PHACTS:

Taking Steps Forward In 2016 – The Phillies will begin 2016 with a clean slate. There will be no speculation about their president, general manager or manager entering Spring Training. They have those people in place. There will be no speculation about the futures of Cole Hamels, Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon. They were traded last summer. Next year should have little less drama off the field, but it should be more interesting on the field as the rebuilding Phillies look for their young players and prospects to take another step forward. Here are the top five questions entering next season: 1. How can 2016 be judged as a success? That's easy. They need big leaguers like Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera and Jerad Eickhoff to establish themselves and show everybody they should be part of the core going forward. They also need their top prospects to take another step forward. While it is unrealistic to expect J.P. Crawford, Mark Appel, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp to make the Phillies out of Spring Training, it is realistic to think some of them could be in the big leagues before the end of the season. But the best thing that could happen to Philadelphia next year would be if its young talents in the Major League and Minor League levels look more and more like the real deal entering 2017. 2. Who will be the first prospect promoted? That's a tough one. Crawford is the No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to MLBPipeline. There may be a scenario in which he plays very well in Triple-A Lehigh Valley and almost forces the Phillies to promote him. But that only will happen if the organization believes he is ready to play every day. He will not join the Phillies as a part-time player. It's not a stretch to think he could be in the big leagues by the middle of the summer. What happens to Freddy Galvis at that point? If he is playing well, he could move to second base, depending on how Cesar Hernandez is playing. Or Galvis could move into a utility role. But again, all of this depends on Crawford's performance in Triple-A. 3. Who will be in the Opening Day rotation? There are so many options at this point, but we know Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton are locks. The Phillies traded for them for a reason; they need some veteran stability in the rotation. Nola and Eickhoff have to be considered favorites based on their performances last season. And then one has to think one of the pitchers they acquired in the Ken Giles trade -- Vincent Velasquez or Brett Oberholtzer -- will be a favorite for a job. But the good thing about what the Phillies accomplished this offseason is almost nobody (maybe other than Hellickson, Morton and Nola) will be handed a job. If somebody really struggles this spring and somebody really pitches well, one of those favorites could be bumped out. But Hellickson, Morton, Nola, Eickhoff and Velasquez have to be considered the early frontrunners. 4. Who will be the closer? There will be a Spring Training competition, but the early favorites are David Hernandez and Ernesto Frieri. Luis Garcia could be a candidate because of his stuff, but the smart bet is on the veterans with experience. 5. Will Ryan Howard be the first baseman on Opening Day? It seems like it. Phillies general manager Matt Klentak met with Howard and Howard's agent at Citizens Bank Park before Thanksgiving. Klentak described the discussion as positive. Everybody knows the Phillies have tried hard to trade Howard, but they have found no takers. If nothing happens before Spring Training, the hope is Howard can produce against right-handed hitters and possibly improve against left-handers. If he can, he will play more often. If not, Darin Ruf should see more time against lefties.

The Case For Billy Wagner – Billy Wagner has taken a slight backseat to Trevor Hoffman in this year's Hall of Fame discussion, but given what Wagner did during his 16 years in the big leagues, there is room for debate that the spotlight throughout the voting season has been focused on the wrong guy. Maybe "wrong" is too strong a word. After all, Wagner, Hoffman and the third closer on the ballot -- Lee Smith, who's back for a 14th try -- have all done plenty to merit consideration. But when the topic of relievers comes up, Hoffman is always mentioned first, as the most likely of the three to gain entry in 2016. This really is for one main reason: saves. Hoffman has 601 of them, second most in history and 179 ahead of Wagner's 422, fifth-highest. While there never was a magic number for closers to guarantee entry to the Hall -- to date, only five closers have been elected -- it's been widely assumed in general circles that Hoffman's total in that lone category is enough to push him through. And it may be. But there is an argument to be made that Wagner might just be the best closer on the ballot. It depends on the voters' criteria, which, thanks to modern-day metrics, largely debunk the importance of the more traditional stats -- especially saves. This isn't some outside-the-box thinking. The save, while useful, is also understood to be flawed -- and not just among numbers-minded analysts. It's pretty much a universal theory. "The numbers that stand out to me are not just saves," Wagner said the day the ballot was announced. "It's the big numbers: ERA, strikeouts, batting average against. How do they show dominance? Those are dominant numbers. Saves are just tied along with it." And that's one of the main reasons why Hall of Fame voting in this particular area has become so murky. The main knock on Wagner is his innings pitched -- 903, the lowest among all elite closers in history by a significant margin. In fact, no reliever has ever been elected to the Hall with fewer than 1,000 career innings pitched. But what made Wagner so elite is what he did while pitching those 903 innings. He had more strikeouts than either of his two contemporaries. His 1,196 K's are just a tick better than Mariano Rivera's 1,173 (Rivera also pitched three more years than Wagner). Hoffman, who pitched four years longer than Wagner, had 1,133 strikeouts. Wagner's career ERA is 2.31, second-lowest to only Rivera (2.21) among pitchers with that many innings from 1920 to present. Dating back to 1900, Wagner has the highest strikeout-per-nine-innings ratio (11.92) among pitchers with at least 900 innings. Wagner's WHIP of 1.00 is tied with Eckersley for the lowest among all elite closers, including the other two on the ballot, Hoffman and Smith. Plenty of evidence exists to support the theory that Wagner was a far more dominant closer than Hoffman, but while Wagner acknowledges that saves don't tell the whole story, they're still a big part of it. And when it comes to Hoffman, Wagner has few doubts about where he fits into history. "It's hard to believe he isn't looked at as a shoo-in as a Hall of Famer, with 600 saves," Wagner said. "His numbers alone speak volumes. I think he has an 88, 89 save percentage. He had a different way of how he dominated a team." Wagner has a point. While Wagner blew hitters away with a 100-mph fastball, Hoffman earned his paychecks by confusing them with a changeup that hitters could not decipher. In addition to saves, Hoffman also has longevity as an ally, something Hall voters will have to take into account as they weigh his candidacy. He pitched 18 years and lasted until age 42. That goes a long way in Hall consideration. For Wagner, his philosophy about the importance of closers is simple: take them out of the equation and see how good your team is without them. "There's only a few people that have demonstrated that they can go out there night in and night out and handle the stress of getting the last three outs," Wagner said. "Doing it on a nightly basis and having the longevity to prove it counts for a lot."

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.

Closer Comes Full Circle

PHILS PHACTS:

Coming Home – Andrew Bailey is 31, which means his earliest baseball memories as a kid in South Jersey include Veterans Stadium, Darren Daulton, John Kruk, Curt Schilling and the 1993 National League champion Phillies. He will have the opportunity to play for his hometown team next year. The Phillies last week signed Bailey to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training. He will compete for a bullpen job alongside recently acquired veterans like David Hernandez, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica and James Russell; incumbents like Elvis Araujo, Luis Garcia, Jeanmar Gomez, Dalier Hinojosa and Hector Neris; and Rule 5 Draft pick Daniel Stumpf. "As a kid growing up in South Jersey, you dream of playing for the Phillies," Bailey said in an interview with MLB.com. "My whole family is a fan of the organization. It's awesome to hear from so many friends and family. The feedback has been tremendous. Everybody is super excited. I look forward to the opportunity to wear the pinstripes. It'll be good to get back home, back to South Jersey. I'm really looking forward to it." Bailey attended Paul VI High School in Haddonfield, N.J. The A's selected him in the sixth round of the 2006 Draft out of Wagner College. The Phillies selected immediately before the A's, taking left-hander Daniel Brauer from Northwestern. Brauer never played higher than Class A Advanced Clearwater. "I think I did a pre-Draft workout at Citizens Bank Park," Bailey said. "I don't know how far their interest went, but I think there was an opportunity there in the sense I was invited to a workout at least. It's an exciting time. I definitely can't wait." Bailey won the American League Rookie of the Year Award with the A's in 2009, and he made the AL All-Star team in '09 and '10. But a shoulder injury has limited him to just 59 games in the previous four seasons, including 10 with the Yankees in 2015. Bailey posted a 1.80 ERA in 28 appearances in the Minor Leagues in 2015 before posting a 5.19 ERA with New York. Before injuries hit, he had a 2.07 ERA with 75 saves in 84 chances from 2009-11. "I'm coming off injuries and working my way back, so it's the opportunity I was looking for the most," he said. "The Phillies presented me with a great one and I hope to take full advantage of it." Bailey said he is healthy and he will have no restrictions when Spring Training opens in February. "The surgery I had was pretty much a reconstruction of the shoulder," Bailey said. "The surgeon gave me an 18-24 month timeframe to be 100 percent. The 18-month mark was Spring Training last year. I was able to go into camp and compete for a job. I came through healthy and ready to go. I worked my way back up and ended up getting called back to the big leagues, which was unbelievable. After that road, you wait so long to get back to what you want, I got a taste of it again, and I look forward to building off that month I had with the Yankees. "If I go into camp healthy and ready to go, hopefully it works out. I feel like I'm 100 percent ready to go."

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.

Changing The Schedule While Waiting

PHILS PHACTS:

Changes To Spring Training Schedule – Fans headed to Bright House Field in Clearwater, Fla., for Spring Training might want to recheck the Phillies' schedule. The team announced Friday it had revised its schedule because of potential international games and three Opening Day games on April 3. The following are changes to the opposing teams: March 8: Originally scheduled to play the Twins, the Phillies are now playing the Pirates. March 22: Originally scheduled to play the Braves, the Phillies are now playing the Twins. March 30: Originally scheduled to play the Yankees, the Phillies are now playing the Astros. The following are changes to the opposing teams and ballparks: March 28: Originally scheduled to play the Orioles in Clearwater, the Phillies are now playing the Blue Jays in Dunedin. March 29: Originally scheduled to play the Blue Jays in Dunedin, the Phillies are now playing the Yankees in Clearwater.

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.

Questions Abound This Offseason

PHILS PHACTS:

More Questions About The Rebuild – Do the Phillies have a target date for when they think they'll be playoff-ready? Are they looking for short-term free agents or building blocks this year? -- Bill S., Centennial, Colo. Matt Klentak has been asked a lot of questions since he became the Phillies' general manager, but it seems no question has been asked more than this one. People want to know when the Phils will be good again. It is understandable, but it also is impossible to answer. Why? Because nobody truly knows. The Phillies can hope they can contend as early as 2017, but that hope could crumble if players like Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff experience setbacks, or if prospects like J.P. Crawford, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro sustain injuries or don't pan out. So why would Klentak or anybody else with the Phils give a definitive date for when the club will be a contender? The Phillies first need to see improvement from their young players and prospects in 2016. And that is why they will probably acquire more short- than long-term solutions this offseason. It just doesn't make sense to sign a few players to lucrative multiyear deals when the Phils aren't certain about where their building blocks will be in a couple of years. How does Jeremy Hellickson help the Phillies next season? -- Jimmy C., Philadelphia. Simply put, Hellickson provides depth to the rotation. He is a veteran, but he also is just 28. So it isn't like Hellickson is at the tail end of his career. He went 22-27 with a 4.86 ERA in 72 appearances (71 starts) the previous three seasons. That isn't good -- consider that Aaron Harang posted a 4.86 ERA last season -- but the Phillies are rolling the dice, hoping that Hellickson can have a bounce-back year as he enters free agency. If he does, great. If he doesn't, they didn't lose much by trying. The Phillies didn't commit to more than one year of Hellickson. Based on Twitter and email, fans seemed to respond pretty positively to this acquisition. The ones that didn't either want the Phils to go out and get pitchers like Zack Greinke (which makes no sense, in my opinion -- see my answer to the first question) or they believe Philadelphia should be able to acquire young, controllable aces by Klentak performing some sort of Jedi mind trick on opposing GMs. That just isn't reality. Is trading Ken Giles this offseason really a good idea? I know he could net a huge return, but what if the Phillies pull a miraculous worst-to-first and make the World Series next year? Who's going to nail down that ninth inning? Would he be as good as Giles? -- Brett L., Broomall, Pa. First, trading anybody is a good idea if the return is right. It's not like the Phillies are going to trade Giles for a marginal player. They would only trade him if they believe they are getting a significant return. In my opinion, it's negligent not to be open to those possibilities. Second, you have to play the percentages here. You don't stop yourself from trading somebody on the very, very small chance the Phillies go from worst to first. In that scenario, nearly everything would have to go much better than expected next season. And if everything goes much better than expected, it probably means they already found somebody to replace Giles. I wouldn't worry about it. Giles won't get traded unless the Phils like the return. I've never been to Clearwater. Is it worth a trip this spring? -- Chelsea D., Philadelphia. Absolutely. Spring Training is fun for fans, regardless of the team's expectations. Clearwater, Fla., is a great place to visit in March. The ballpark is fantastic, and there is something cool about leaving home and being surrounded by fellow Phillies fans. Did I mention the weather and the fact the ballpark is great? Just make sure to get a grouper sandwich at Frenchy's while you're there.

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.

Should Be An Interesting Mix Next Season!

PHILS PHACTS:

Young Core Commitment – General manager Matt Klentak has spent his first 10 days with the Phillies meeting as many people as possible and learning as much as he can about the organization he hopes to return to World Series contention. Klentak said he feels pretty good about things heading into next week's GM Meetings in Boca Raton, Fla. "It has been a very busy 10 days, but it has been a super, super valuable 10 days," Klentak said Thursday. So what's the plan? "We really want to raise the floor and add some depth," Klentak said. "Kind of at every turn, that's what we're going to be focused on. And in the pitching department, I think we really need to work on just -- again, I say raise the floor -- but kind of establish sort of a firm foundation of pitching. That's not going to end when we break camp at the end of Spring Training. That's something we're going to be committed to for a long time." How it happens remains to be seen, but do not expect the Phillies to be the "mystery team" that swoops in to sign an ace to a $100 million contract at the last minute. Phillies president Andy MacPhail said in September that the club does not plan to pursue the biggest names in free agency this offseason. "There is some talent that we think is viable talent, but it needs to come percolate and demonstrate that it's real," MacPhail said of the young players in the organization. "And after that period, you might go forward. But do you really want to commit after you've just been in that pool and suffered from it? Do you really want to commit at this stage?" Phillies part-owner John Middleton reiterated that point during Klentak's introductory news conference Oct. 26. "I don't think you can buy a winner," Middleton said. "I think this will not come as any great shock, I don't view free agency as the way to build your club," Klentak added Thursday. "Good clubs, we just saw it in the playoffs this year, in the World Series this year. The core of the best clubs are built internally through the Draft, through savvy international signings, through signing key players to contract extensions and extending the club control. "Free agency is very useful to augment or supplement that core, but you know that is not where you're going to get the best bang for your buck from a value perspective. Sometimes circumstances dictate that's where you're going to go to get your players. Sometimes that will dictate where you want to shy away from. But if you want to fish in the deep end of the pond in free agency, you know that there's going to be more risk there. The burn factor is going to be higher. So you have to enter into free agency knowing that. It doesn't mean you shouldn't play in free agency or you should shy away from it at all times. You just have to go in knowing the realities." Klentak prefers not to trade any of the Phillies' young core to take a larger step forward in a couple years -- closer Ken Giles could fetch some talent, for example -- but he also will not completely dismiss the idea, either. "I try not to operate in absolutes if at all possible, because you never know," Klentak said. But first, Klentak has to know what he has. That is why he is asking a lot of questions and listening. That is why he is reading through player reports on his weekend cross-country flights from Philadelphia to Los Angeles, where his family lives at the moment. "We all have to know about our players," Klentak said. "It's really an important thing as we embark on trade discussions and free-agent discussions. We have to know what we have first, before we know what we need."

Haunted By 2008 – The Phillies admittedly turned the page too slowly on 2008, but the turnover is nearly complete. The only players remaining from their World Series championship team are Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz. Howard will make $25 million next season, which does not include a $10 million buyout on a 2017 club option. Ruiz will make $8.5 million, which does not include a $500,000 buyout on a 2017 club option. But will Howard and Ruiz be back, just because they are under contract? The Phillies have tried to trade Howard, but found no takers despite agreeing to pay almost the entirety of his contract. "They definitely fit into our plans for '16," Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said Thursday. "That's not a concern for me. But I never say never. I'm open to anything. I have so much respect for what Ryan and Chooch have done, and what they have meant to this city and franchise. At some point, frankly it could be next week, I'm going to sit down with their agents and talk to them. I don't know them as people. I want to understand sort of what their motivations are. But the question about, 'Can they exist on our roster next year?' Absolutely." Phillies manager Pete Mackanin turned Howard into a platoon player this past season, splitting his time at first base with Darin Ruf. Howard hit .229 with 29 doubles, one triple, 23 home runs, 77 RBIs and a .720 OPS in 129 games. He posted an .802 OPS against right-handed pitchers, which ranked 55th out of 140 qualified hitters in baseball. Howard posted a .418 OPS against left-handers, which is the ninth-lowest mark in baseball in the past 20 seasons (minimum 100 plate appearances against lefties). Ruf's 1.107 OPS against left-handers tied Nelson Cruz for the best in baseball (minimum 100 plate appearances against lefties). "I spent quite a bit of time with Pete last week [at the organizational meetings], and we talked about that among many other things," Klentak said about a Howard-Ruf platoon. "We will seek the best combination of players to find results. The strengths and the skill sets of the players will dictate how we utilize them." Klentak said he believes Howard can still hit effectively in the middle of the Phillies' lineup. He said Howard has earned the benefit of the doubt. "I'm a big believer in providing opportunities for players," Klentak said. "The players will let us know. We're not going to draw a conclusion over a couple of games or an at-bat, but if the circumstances of the performance dictate we make an adjustment, we will. I go into this with some degree of optimism ... and let's give players opportunities and if they fail to achieve, we'll adjust. But let's not adjust before we have to." But Klentak also has to prepare for the possibility that those players don't perform, or that they are unhappy in their future roles. Ruiz said late in the season he still views himself as the No. 1 catcher, although he acknowledged Cameron Rupp outplayed him. "If we're doing our jobs and communicating with players throughout the process, I think that goes a long way towards minimizing issues," Klentak said. "If everybody understands where each party is coming from -- that doesn't mean everybody has to agree with it -- but as long as people understand and are open and honest about it, I think that is probably the biggest thing I've learned over time. "You can't fool the players -- they know. You can't fool the media -- they know. You can't fool the fans. So being open and honest with the plans and what the intentions are, I think, is often the best medicine."

Fall Star Game Preview – On any given day this fall, fans can head to an Arizona Fall League game and see some of the best talent Minor League Baseball has to offer. On Saturday, the AFL gives everyone the chance to do some one-stop shopping, courtesy of the 10th annual Fall Stars Game. The game, which starts at 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on MLB Network and streamed live on MLB.com, features the best of the best in the prospect world. With seven members of MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 Prospects list and a total of 37 players on their team's Top 30 lists, it's the Fall League version of the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game. "It'll be a whole lot of fun," said Mets first baseman Dominic Smith, the Mets' No. 5 prospect (No. 92 overall) who was one of two first basemen named on Monday to the East Division squad. "This league is so good. Every day I step on the field, it's like an All-Star Game. You see the most elite Minor Leaguers every game. I feel like the Fall Stars Game will be a lot of fun. I'm excited to play in it." Mariners’ first baseman D.J. Peterson, who is on the West Division team, will be playing in his second straight Fall Stars Game. The M's No. 3 prospect is very much looking forward to another chance to show what he can do on a national stage. "I'm very excited to represent the Mariners," said Peterson, who went 0-for-2 in last year's contest. "Doing it two years in a row, I'm hoping I can get something more out of it. It's great to get to interact with all the guys from other teams." Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes is the highest-ranked player in this year's game, and the No. 16 prospect has peformed well, striking out 14 batters over 15 innings, despite a shaky outing that pushed his ERA on the season to 3.60 over four starts. Pirates outfielder Austin Meadows is the highest-ranked hitter (No. 22) in the game, followed by fellow Georgia high school 2013 first-round pick Clint Frazier (No. 35) of the Indians. Smith, Daniel Robertson of the Rays (No. 79) and the Rockies' Raimel Tapia (No. 99) round out the Top 100 representatives. As part of the Arizona Fall League's Final Two Fan Vote, Cubs No. 20 prospect Jeimer Candelario and Brewers No. 18 prospect Yadiel Rivera were added to the rosters. For the first time, fans were able to select a 26th player for each Fall Stars team. This year's rosters are chock full of former first-round picks, with eight taken in the opening round of the Draft. The list, which doesn't include supplemental first-rounders or those taken under the new rules in the Competitive Balance Rounds, is led by six selections from the first round of the 2013 Draft. Last year's game not only featured top-level talent, but it served as a crystal ball into who some of the impact rookies in the big leagues this past season would be. The Dodgers' Corey Seager, the Indians' Francisco Lindor, the Braves' Jace Peterson, the Twins' Eddie Rosario, the Yankees' Greg Bird (the AFL MVP a year ago), the D-backs' Archie Bradley and the Cubs' C.J. Edwards all played in the 2014 edition of the Fall Stars and all made contributions -- some larger than others -- to their parent club during this past regular season. "I'm sure this year's roster will have guys who'll make that jump and play in the big leagues next year," Smith said. "It tells me what's possible. If you keep playing hard, anything is possible." Smith has been one of the better performers in the AFL this season, hitting .400/.542/.571 over his first 35 at-bats. While Smith won't be one of those guys who jumps from the Fall Stars Game right to the big leagues, this experience is clearly getting him ready for the jump out of Class A ball to the upper levels. "I'm just trying to keep it pretty simple," Smith said. "Work counts, swing at good pitches. When you swing at good pitches, good things happen. I'm trying to show I can perform at this level. "This experience is definitely preparing me for Double-A and beyond. A lot of guys in this league will be in the big leagues next year and beyond. I'll be facing these guys in the future for sure. Playing against the competition of the future, getting to compete with them now, it's making me a lot more comfortable going into next season." D.J. Peterson also feels more comfortable, especially compared to a year ago, when he struggled in the AFL. More energized this fall, Peterson has rediscovered his joy for the game. Like Smith, he's trying to keep things simple -- something he hopes will help him in the Fall Stars Game, when the natural inclination might be to try to do something special. "I feel like this year, the mindset is completely different," Peterson said. "I just want to go out and have fun. That's what I've been doing every day here. "I think you keep your same approach in the Fall Stars Game -- try to see something [over the] middle part of the plate and put a good swing on it and do some damage. The guys in this game are really good, so if you miss that pitch, they're going to get you."

THE BEGINNING:

The Phillies finally put an end to the season finishing in last place in the NL East with a record of 63-99. Given the departures, aging stars, injuries, and bipolar performances, this has ended up being one of the worst seasons in franchise history! However, at least Ryan Madson got another ring this year.